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Project titleClimate variability in the Russian Plain over the last millennium based on dendroclimatology and climate modeling: reconstruction, comparison, forecast
Project LeadDolgova Ekaterina
AffiliationInstitute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
|Implementation period||2021 - 2023|
Research area 07 - EARTH SCIENCES, 07-701 - Paleogeography
Keywordstree rings, drought indices, climate change, droughts, climate models, historical climatology
The project aims to address the problem of detailed understanding of climate changes in the Russian plain over the past Millennium and the contribution of natural and anthropogenic components to these changes. Its solution is important for understanding of the functioning of the Earth's climate system and predicting the global and regional climate. The project is based on the reconstruction of hydrometeorological parameters on the Russian plain based on dendroclimatology and mathematical modeling. As a result of the project, a network of long-term (500-1000 years) continuous regional chronologies will be created in terms of width, optical and anatomical density and δ13C isotopic composition of wood with absolute time reference through samples of living trees and based on wood from archaeological collections and architectural monuments. These chronologies will be used to reconstruct the air temperature in several key regions (the North of the Russian plain, the Kostroma and Yaroslavl regions, the Moscow and Kaluga regions, the Volga region, etc.) and create spatial reconstructions for the entire region. The method developed by the project leader for direct (without standardization) reconstruction of climate parameters based on dendrochronological data DIRECT (Matskovsky, Helama, 2016) will be used for reconstructions of climate parameters. We also plan to improve the European Russia Drought Atlas (Cook et al., 2020), created with our active participation, in particular, to develop new and to update existing chronologies of the ring width that are sensitive to the droughts, to analyze them in the context of historical data, and to use two alternative methods of spatial reconstruction for this data set. The first experiment is to replace the Principal Components Regression method with the Partial Least Squares Regression method when constructing reconstructions based on Point-by-Point Regression (PPR, Cook et al., 1999). The second is the introduction of neural networks, namely deep learning, for spatial reconstruction of climate parameters using a distributed network of tree-ring chronologies. Our approach will be based on the combination of the Point-by-Point Regression and Deep Learning approaches. We will compare the hydroclimatic reconstructions of the Drought Atlas with the results of climate modeling of the last Millennium performed within the framework of PMIP (Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project). We will choose the model that most accurately reproduces hydroclimatic conditions of the Russian plain in the past. Based on this model, we will evaluate changes in the region's hydroclimatic conditions in the 21st century for various scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions. We will compare the data from the Drought Atlas and reconstructed temperatures for warm periods of the past with the characteristics of the current climate on the Russian plain to assess the natural and anthropogenic components in climate change. The project aims to determine the age of architectural and archaeological monuments based on the created regional and local absolutely dated tree-ring chronologies. In the process of creating chronologies, we will get the dates of unique objects that have historical and cultural value. An important component of the project will be the preservation of unique samples that carry information about environmental changes in the past. These samples can be used in the future for new types of analysis. Considering the large-scale reconstruction of wooden architecture monuments, as well as the destruction of many of them, this task is not only of great scientific, but also of socio-cultural significance. All the goals set in this project are achievable through the efforts of our group, which has the necessary qualifications, equipment (including the Center of Collective Use of IGRAS) and a large array of dendrochronological data collected in recent decades.
The following results will be obtained: - For the first time for the European Russia, a network of long (500-1000 years) continuous regional chronologies will be created including width, optical density and carbon isotope composition of wood with absolute cross-dating through samples of living trees and based on collections of wood from archaeological excavations and architectural monuments of the 17th-19th centuries. - For the first time, we will search for the most sensitive parameters of tree rings for future reconstructions in the Central part of European Russia based on analysis of climatic response in an extended set of parameters of tree rings: the width of early and late wood, optical density, carbon isotope composition, and cellular parameters for one reference site (Kostroma region). - For the first time, we will develop air temperature reconstructions for several key regions (the North of the Russian plain, Kostroma and Yaroslavl regions, Moscow and Kaluga regions, Volga region, etc.) based on the optical density of conifers. We will also develop a spatial temperature reconstruction for the entire region. - We will perform a search for analogs of the current state of climate on the Russian plain (Medieval climate anomaly and shorter intrasecennial warming) and analyze their characteristics. We will create floating chronologies that capture a Medieval climate anomaly with possible absolute (calendar) dating. - The European Russia Drought Atlas (Cook et al., 2020) will be improved by developing new and strengthening existing chronologies, extending the time interval, and using two alternative spatial reconstruction methods for this data set, including a neural network approach using deep learning. - We will carry out a detailed analysis of the Atlas data in the context of historical and climatological evidence and and current understanding of the circulation mechanisms that drive climatic fluctuations in the region. We will compare characteristics of the droughts Atlas (the amplitude of variability, parameters of natural intra-century fluctuations, as well as the frequency and duration of extreme climate events) will be compared with the characteristics of the current climate in the Russian plain - For the first time, the spatial and temporal variability of the reconstructed hydro-climatic characteristics will be compared with the results of climate modeling of the last Millennium, performed within the framework of PMIP (Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project). The model that most accurately reproduces the hydro-climatic conditions of the Russian plain in the past will be used to estimate changes in the hydro-climatic conditions of the region in the 21st century for various scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. All results will be new, original, and will correspond to the state-of-the-art level of research in the world. They will be obtained using modern and new methods and can be applied in subsequent studies at the global level. They will be published in highly rated international journals. A popular science review of the project results will be published on the on the website of the Institute of geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences The practical application of the project results in the economy and social sphere is that they will help to reasonably narrow the ensemble forecasts of modern climate models for the 21st century, which, in turn, will lead to improved medium- and long-term climate forecasts for the European Russia and help to develop optimal and cost-effective strategies for adapting society to climate change.
Annotation of the results obtained in 2021
During the first year of the project, 1,140 samples were сollected: 466 samples from living trees, 247 samples from wooden buildings and 427 archaeological samples. The blue intensity (blue intensity of late wood BI and the difference in the blue intensity of late and early wood δBI) of 341 cores was measured for the Arkhangelsk, Vologda, Leningrad, Kostroma and Yaroslavl regions. It is shown that the constructed chronologies of blue intensity have high correlation coefficients with chronologies of maximum X-ray density from neighboring locations. The tree-ring width was measured for 10 sites of living trees, 10 local tree-ring chronologies up to 380 years long were constructed. The tree-ring width from 10 old buildings was measured, 10 local tree-ring chronologies up to 462 years long were constructed, 7 of them were dated. Dating, in particular, received such objects of cultural heritage as the chapel of Mary Magdalene, St. Nicholas Church from village Visokiy Ostrov and St. Nicholas Church from village Tukholi (Vitoslavlitsy Museum, Veliky Novgorod), Elijah Church (Kostroma Museum of Wooden Architecture), Bazhenov House from Vavchuga village, Arkhangelsk region. 88 samples of subfossile oak wood from the alluvial deposits of the Sura River were collected and processed, 6 floating chronologies up to 581 years long were constructed. Materials from 11 archaeological collections were measured. A total of 883 samples were measured during the first year of the project: 405 samples from living trees, 160 samples from wooden buildings, 230 archaeological samples and 88 samples of buried wood. Samples were prepared for cellular measurements. The first cellular measurements were obtained for pine trees from the Yaroslavl region. 183 cellulose samples were prepared to measure the ratio of stable carbon isotopes in annual rings. At the moment, 93 samples have been measured. A preliminary analysis of the response function for the period 2010-2020 was carried out, which showed a statistically significant response to aridity conditions.
1. Solomina O., Matskovsky V. Dendrochronology in European Russia in the Early 21st Century: State of the Art Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 9: 738199 (year - 2021) https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.738199
2. Matskovsky V.V., Dolgova E.A., Semenyak N.S., Kuznetsova V.V., Solomina O.N. Дендрохронологические исследования последних лет в костроме и костромской области Костромской край и сопредельные территории в древности, Средневековье и в Новое время. К 160-летию со дня рождения Н.М. Бекаревича, c. 63-65 (year - 2021)
3. Matskovsky V.V., Zazovskaya E.P., Turchinskaya S.M., Zhdanova E.Yu., Mikhalenko V.N., Semenyak N.S., Solomina O.N. Cтабильные изотопы углерода в годичных кольцах сосны центра Русской равнины – первые результаты Пути эволюционной географии - 2021: Материалы II Всероссийской научной конференции, посвященной памяти профессора А.А.Величко (Москва, 22-25 ноября 2021 г.). – М.: Институт географии РАН, c. 231-233 (year - 2021)
4. Semenyak N.S., Matskovsky V.V. Использование оптической плотности годичных колец для дендрохронологического датирования архитектурных объектов Костромской области Костромской край и сопредельные территории в древности, Средневековье и в Новое время. К 160-летию со дня рождения Н.М. Бекаревича, c. 66-71 (year - 2021)
Annotation of the results obtained in 2022
In 2022, organization of saw cut collections was completed (previously, the core collection was organized). The storage room was equipped with racks, the collections of saw cuts were placed on them. Over 1,000 saw cuts have been downsized, greatly reducing the storage space required. The created repository has enough space to replenish with new samples for at least the next 10 years. A booklet-memo on the selection of dendrochronological samples for distribution among the project volunteers was created and passed to the coordinator of the project for restoration of wooden churches. A 14-day expedition (May 28-June 10, 2022) was conducted to collect samples. The total length of the route was about 3500 km. Stands up to 300 years old were found and eight living tree plots were established. Most importantly, the samples were taken in the relatively forestless part of the Russian Plain, which expands the geographic coverage of the dendrochronological network to the south and will contribute both to the study of the climatic response of tree-ring parameters in these areas and to the developent of new composite chronologies. A total of 790 samples were collected during the second year of the project: 426 samples from living trees (10 collections), 289 samples from wooden structures (18 collections) and 75 archaeological samples (10 collections). 20 tree-ring chronologies were built for different tree species (pine, spruce, oak) with a duration of 100 years or more. During the second year of the project, samples were prepared and optical density was measured (optical density of late wood BI and the difference between optical density of late and early wood δBI) for 181 architectural wood cores from the Arkhangelsk, Novgorod, Vologda, Kostroma and Yaroslavl regions. Optical density was also measured for the first 10 archaeological samples from the Kostroma and Vologda regions. To build chronologies of cellular parameters, 23 microsections were measured for sample A22A21A. For each annual ring, we received data on 36 parameters. The length of the chronologies is132 years - 1889-2020. For the same sample plot, a chronology of stable carbon isotopes was obtained based on the measurement of 183 samples from individual tree rings and covering the period 1900–2020. Correlation analysis showed that most of the cellular parameters are characterized by significant positive correlations with the scPDSI index (r=0.36-0.47, p<0.05) during the growing season of the current year, from May to September. Significant positive correlations were obtained mainly for precipitation in May of the current year (r=0.34-0.43) and temperatures in January and February of the current year (r= from -0.25 to -0.45). We also compared the new C13 carbon isotope chronology with average monthly precipitation and air temperature. The analysis revealed a negative relationship with June and July temperatures, as well as a positive relationship with May, June and July precipitation. The relationship with the PDSI dryness index also turned out to be statistically significant for July, August and September. In general, the results obtained indicate the presence of a relationship with moisture availability. Further work to measure more series is likely to increase the tightness of the relationship. An analysis of the climatic response in the chronologies of the optical density of wood revealed the presence of a strong temperature signal in the chronologies located in the north. Thus, the optical density obtained for the territory of Solovki, the north of the Arkhangelsk and the east of the Leningrad regions depends on the variability of summer temperature (r = 0.2-0.55). At the same time, the highest correlations are observed in two pine chronologies with July, I24S and O02S from the Arkhangelsk and Leningrad regions, and reach the values r = 0.54 and 0.52. The only chronology of optical density in which no response to summer temperatures was found was A22SD, located to the south of all the other studied chronologies, in the Yaroslavl region. Three chronologies the width of annual rings BelBog, C04S, N13 from Solovki, Vologda, Novgorod regions have a positive response to winter air temperature.The value of the correlation coefficients with precipitation variability is much lower than with temperature and varies from 0.18 to 0.34. In 2022, dendrochronological analysis of samples of subfossil oak wood from alluvial deposits of the Sura River was continued. Fifty-seven new accessions were studied, some of which were identified as seven new trees, and some were included in the trees identified last year. This, in particular, forced us to reconsider the composition of one of the floating tree-ring chronologies built last year. At the present stage, the total number of studied subfossil individual trees from the Sura River is 56. Historical records of weather and climate were searched for two continuous historical periods: the entire 17th century and the first third of the 19th century (1801-1829). The main stage of the work consisted in collecting and presenting source information on the history of climate in Russia in the 17th century. This work included identifying relevant historical sources; systematic review of historical sources in search of news about climatic, weather, geological and astronomical phenomena; identification of relevant news; localization and dating of discovered news; a critical assessment of the information contained in the news; entering data into the table and (if necessary) drawing up an expert commentary. In the course of the work, tens of thousands of pages of historical sources of various types were systematically reviewed: narrative (chronicles, chronicles), office work (business correspondence, diplomatic, administrative and military documentation) and sources of personal origin (diaries and notes of contemporaries), as well as hundreds of pages of reference and scientific literature. The key result of the work done on the study of written sources of the 17th century was the identification and presentation in a structured tabular form of more than 300 evidence. The results of working with newspapers of the first third of the 19th century were a table with printed mentions of weather events in the news and an archive of photographs of daily meteorological observations. In total, 476 mentions of weather events were recorded for this period. Work was also carried out on the development of existing methods for the reconstruction of climatic indicators based on tree-ring data. The self calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) and summer temperature were chosen as the considered climatic indicators. Four methods of spatial reconstruction were considered: Ensemble Point-by-point Regression (EPPR), Linear Principal Component Regression (lm), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and Modified Pointwise Regression using Partial Least Squares Regression (PPR+PLSR). The last two methods were developed as part of this study. To test the proposed methods, the territory of North America was chosen, since it has the largest number of tree-ring chronologies, as well as the results of reconstructions by other authors. The results of scPDSI and temperature reconstruction based on pseudo-proxy simulation showed the superiority of the method (PPR+PLSR), while ANN showed the worst results. The linear model, which is actually a one-layer, one-node version of ANN, is worse than EPPR for scPDSI, but better for temperature, which is most likely due to the more continuous spatial distribution of temperature values, which means it is easier to describe in terms of EOF. In 2022, 6 papaers on the subject of the project were published, including 4 articles in Q1, one article in Scopus and one article in the RSCI. The declared indicators for publications were overfulfilled by 1.4 times a year before the end of the project. Three reports were presented at one international and one Russian conference.
1. Dolgova, E.A., Solomina, O.N., Matskovsky, V.V., Cherenkova, E.A., Semenyak, N.S. Climate signal strength in tree-ring width of spruce growing in the Solovetsky Islands (Russia) Dendrochronologia, Dolgova, E. A., Solomina, O. N., Matskovsky, V. V., Cherenkova, E. A., & Semenyak, N. S. (2022). Climate signal strength in tree-ring width of spruce growing in the Solovetsky Islands (Russia). Dendrochronologia, 76, 126012. (year - 2022) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2022.126012
2. Engovatova A., Lazarev A., Matskovsky V. Новые археологические находки для дендрохронологической шкалы по хвойным породам для Ярославской и Костромской областей Археология Подмосковья, Энговатова А.В., Лазарев А.С., Мацковский В.В. (2022) Новые археологические находки для дендрохронологической шкалы по хвойным породам для Ярославской и Костромской областей // Археология Подмосковья - № 18 - С. 91-106. (year - 2022) https://doi.org/10.25681/IARAS.2022.978-5-94375-367-1.91-106
3. Kuznetsova V.V., Solomina O.N. Contrasting climate signals across a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) tree-ring network in the Middle Volga (European Russia) Dendrochronologia, Kuznetsova, V. V., & Solomina, O. N. (2022). Contrasting climate signals across a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) tree-ring network in the Middle Volga (European Russia). Dendrochronologia, 73, 125957. (year - 2022) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2022.125957
4. Matskovsky, V.V. , Kuznetsova, V.V. , Semenyak, N.S. , Turchinskaya S.M., Zazovskaya E.P., Engovatova A.V., Lazarev A.S., Zhdanova E.Yu., Dolgova, E.A. , Solomina, O.N. Dendroclimatic Potential of Stable Carbon Isotopes in Tree-Ring Cellulose of Pinus sylvestris L. in Yaroslavl and Kostroma Regions, European Russia Геоморфология, Мацковский, В. В. и др. (2022). Дендроклиматический потенциал стабильных изотопов углерода в целлюлозе годичных колец Pinus sylvestris L. в Ярославской и Костромской областях. Геоморфология, (3), 74-82. (year - 2022) https://doi.org/10.31857/S0435428122030099
5. Semenyak, N., Dolgova, E. Dendroclimatic signals in the pine and spruce chronologies in the Solovetsky Archipelago Dendrochronologia, Semenyak, N., & Dolgova, E. (2023). Dendroclimatic signals in the pine and spruce chronologies in the Solovetsky Archipelago. Dendrochronologia, 126029. (year - 2023) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2022.126029
6. Vladimir Matskovsky, Fidel A. Roig, Mauricio Fuentes, Irina Korneva, Diego Araneo, Hans W. Linderholm, Juan Carlos Aravena Summer temperature changes in Tierra del Fuego since AD 1765: atmospheric drivers and tree-ring reconstruction from the southernmost forests of the world Climate Dynamics, Matskovsky, V. et al. (2022). Summer temperature changes in Tierra del Fuego since AD 1765: atmospheric drivers and tree-ring reconstruction from the southernmost forests of the world. Climate Dynamics, 1-15. (year - 2022) https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06384-0