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COMMON PART

Project Number22-77-10055

Project titleSPATIO-TEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF THE PALSA MIRES OF THE KOLA PENINSULA AS A MARKER OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC

Project LeadRyazantsev Pavel

AffiliationKarelian Research Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences,

Research area 07 - EARTH SCIENCES, 07-703 - Glaciology

Keywordspalsa mires, permafrost, geophysical methods, remote sensing, aerial photography, unmanned aerial system, geomodels, monitoring, climate change

PROJECT CONTENT

Annotation
The study of transformation processes and permafrost degradation is an urgent scientific task since the cycles of thawing and the boundaries dynamics of the permafrost are accompanied by changes in the overall ecosystem. Evaluating climate research in the Arctic requires long-term systemic series, expanding network surveillance to cover infected infections, and incorporating research results into global models of climate dynamics. The permafrost degradation processes can be incredibly intensive in the transboundary zones of the Arctic and Subarctic, for example, for wetland ecosystems, where small, even short-term climatic shifts can lead to a significant effect. An example of such objects is palsa mires, characterized by heaving hillocks containing a core of frozen soils. The study of the internal structure and assessment of the transformation dynamics of palsa is of great scientific importance since the permafrost in the core of the mounds is subject primarily to climatic changes. For the whole of Fennoscandia, there is a three-fold reduction in the area of palsa mires, which requires monitoring of biological consequences, including a decrease in biodiversity. The existing climate scenarios for northern Fennoscandia demonstrate the likelihood of a reduction in the total area of palsa up to their complete disappearance by the middle of the 21st century. One of the relatively poorly studied regions in the permafrost zone dynamics is the Kola Peninsula, where permafrost soils manifest mainly sporadically and are primarily associated with palsa mires. Palsa is a bright model object for study due to its local size, geomorphological and geobotanical specificity, and feedback even to small climate changes. Unlike areas of continuous permafrost, permafrost in the core of hillocks reacts more intensively to changes in the average annual temperature and an increase in soil moisture, snow cover thickness, and vegetation succession. Based on this, the project's goal is to develop a technology for determining the spatial structure of palsas and its monitoring based on a set of non-destructive control methods to assess the degradation of permafrost, as well as to identify patterns of transformation of palsa mires under the influence of natural, climatic, and anthropogenic factors and determine their dynamics on the territory of the Kola Peninsula. One underestimating the degree of permafrost change in palsa mires is the lack of detailed spatial models, which is associated with the limitation of classical research methods, mainly surface observations and discrete manual probing of the thickness of the seasonally thawed layer. In contrast, the rapid and episodic nature of the collapse of some palsa emphasizes the need to consider many indicators to identify dynamics quickly. Therefore, the work on the project includes both traditional methods of studying mires and modern forms of remote sensing, laser scanning, aerial photogrammetry, and geophysical surveys. The project is focused on solving the following tasks: studying the display of frozen peatland components in geophysical fields; studying algorithms for digital processing of remote images for typing the area of palsa mires according to specified attributes; developing principles for creating complex 2D and 3D geomodels that describe the morphology and internal structure of palsa; implementation of comprehensive research on trial plots on the Kola Peninsula, differing in natural and climatic conditions; development of technology for monitoring the state of palsa based on complex 3D geomodels; assessment of the dynamics of changes in the palsa of the Kola Peninsula and identification of the main marker processes and factors associated with global climate change. Key elements of the project that provide scientific novelty and significance to the final results: 1. Identification of dependencies between peat properties and geophysical parameters, vegetation cover and remote observation indices, hummock morphology, and structure of the frozen core to understand the variability of individual components of palsa mires; 2. Development of a method for assessing palsa mires current state and dynamics based on complex geomodels; 3. Implementation of an integrated approach to data processing based on comparing spatial geomodels and their statistical analysis; 4. Issues of the structure and dynamics of the palsa mires of the Kola Peninsula will be considered at a new scientific and technical level; for the first time in the region, it is planned to do a complex survey of the state of permafrost in palsas to predict its degradation under external factors; 5. Development of technology for monitoring natural objects sensitive to global climate change in the Arctic region and forecasting transformation scenarios and strategies for possible adaptation of Arctic ecosystems.

Expected results
The results that the team plans to obtain through the project implementation will allow assessing the state of permafrost in the palsa mires of the Kola Peninsula; identifying the dynamics of their change under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors; determining the necessary parameters for long-term monitoring in the context of global changes in the Arctic, including monitoring using integrated geomodels. The implementation of the project will require the solution of three main groups of tasks, each of which will provide world-class fundamental scientific results. The solution of the first group of problems is based on laboratory and numerical modeling and is aimed at parametrization of the constituent elements of palsa mires and will allow obtaining the following results: 1. Substantiate the characteristics and indicators necessary for reliable typification of the main characteristics and modeling of palsa's evolutionary processes. 2. Determine the variability of the electrophysical parameters of peat depending on humidity, botanical composition, humus content, freezing. 3. Develop mathematical electrophysical models that reflect the characteristics of palsa mires, including the shape and ice content of the frozen core of individual mounds 4. Investigate digital image processing algorithms for typing the area of palsa mires according to given attributes - vegetation type, vegetation index, microrelief The solution of the second group of tasks will be based on the results of field observations on the reference areas, including the collection and processing of data on the structure of palsa mires the creation of complex 2D and 3D geomodels, which will allow obtaining the following results: 1. To select and test the optimal set of methods and parameters of geophysical survey, aerial photometry, and laser scanning on palsa mires, to establish the range of applicability and the required resolution of the resulting models, to determine the optimal algorithms for constructing digital models of palsa and ways to describe their external and internal spatial structure. 2. Develop a methodology for obtaining complex 2D and 3D geomodels showing palsa's spatial and internal structures. 3. To establish the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors that determine the transformation processes and areas of vulnerability of palsa mires as areas of distribution of sporadic permafrost in the subarctic. The third group of tasks is focused on monitoring the state of palsa mires, which will allow: 1. To study the dynamics of changes in palsa mires on the Kola Peninsula and to identify Spatio-temporal trends in changes in their area of ​​distribution and the structure of micro landscapes. 2. Determine the main directions of the influence of permafrost degradation in palsa on ecosystems' stability and biodiversity conservation and the reverse impact of a succession of plant communities on the dynamics of bog systems. A significant practical result of the project implementation will be the justification of a set of instruments, a range of characteristics and indicators for studying palsa mires as a model object that marks climate change in the Arctic, and the development of principles for monitoring their state by remote and geophysical methods. In the future, the results of complex monitoring of the dynamics of palsa mires of the Kola Peninsula can be used to develop scenarios for global climate change and search for preventive strategies for ecosystem adaptation. In the current state, the methods and approaches of the proposed project are entirely consistent with global trends. The study of the dynamics of palsa mires is of great scientific importance since such landforms of frozen peat masses are primarily subject to climatic changes [Mamet et al., 2017; Kolesnichenko et al., 2018; Olvmo et al., 2020; Fewster et al., 2020], mainly located on the southern border of the permafrost zone [Pastukhov et al., 2017; Shishkonakova et al., 2019]. Today, for the entire territory of Fennoscandia (which includes the Kola Peninsula), there is a threefold decrease in the area of ​​palsa [Luoto et al., 2004]. According to existing climate scenarios, there is a high probability of their complete disappearance by the middle of the 21st century [Fronzek et al., 2010]. It threatens the sustainable functioning of ecosystems, disruption of dynamic balance, and reduction of biodiversity in the region. In this regard, research projects have been initiated in the region's countries, and national monitoring programs have been launched [Sannel et al., 2016; Olvmo et al., 2020]. When solving the problems of monitoring permafrost degradation at the present level, non-destructive control methods have a significant role, including remote sensing, laser imaging, and geophysical survey [Emmert and Kneisel, 2021; Douglas et al., 2021], which also corresponds to the main idea of ​​the project. A distinctive feature of the proposed project is geophysical methods to determine the internal structure of frozen cores in palsa and the method of TDR to determine the relationship of electrophysical attributes with peat properties. Another essential feature of the project is a detailed comparison of geobotanical descriptions with remote sensing data since, at the current stage of the state of the issue, there is a problem with clustering images of palsa mires by vegetation type [Palace et al., 2018; Reese et al., 2021; de la Barreda- Bautista et al., 2022]. The proposed project implements up-to-date methods for studying palsa mires, adapts them to natural specifics, complements the current climate scenarios on the Kola Peninsula, and as a result, provides new data for modifying existing global models of climate change for Northern Europe.

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