INFORMATION ABOUT PROJECT,
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COMMON PART

Project Number24-28-01441

Project titleNew methods of econometric and mathematical modeling of the art market

Project LeadKolycheva Valeria

AffiliationFederal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education "Saint-Petersburg State University",

Research area 08 - HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCES, 08-153 - Industry-specific economics (including agricultural economics)

KeywordsFinancial markets, data analysis, paintings, time series, art analytics, machine learning, social perception

PROJECT CONTENT

Annotation
Fundamentally this project targets the development and application of mathematical methods suitable for modelling of the art market, affected by a large number of dependent and extreme random shocks. The data available to modern art market exhibit highly complex dependence patterns, including extreme dependence at times of stress. This proposal presents novel, robust and reliable alternatives to the existing models and methods to analyse such data, expanding the knowledge base in the field of econometrics and, more generally, in the field of statistical inference as it applies to modern business and economic data. Importantly, the project will relax the unrealistic assumptions made in the traditional models of market behaviour. The relevance of the proposed methods is supported by the wide use of a large amount of collected statistical data for a more accurate analysis and forecasting of the art prices, as well as for the identified characteristics of the art market participants. The scientific novelty lies in the fact that the proposed research falls within variety of overarching disciplines: economics, mathematics and statistics, data science, operations research, and art history. As a result of the project implementation, a set of economic and mathematical models and optimal methods will be created, accompanied by software prototypes. An accompanying objective of the project is to develop a new line of activity for a world-class research laboratory in the field of econometrics and business analytics at St. Petersburg State University. The purpose of the laboratory will be to develop the new topics for research teams, attract foreign scientists to teach mini-courses, online training, organize an annual conference on econometrics and business analytics, as well as a “scientific accelerator” project for the development of young scientists within St. Petersburg University. For this purpose, recognized experts in the fields of economics, mathematics, statistics, programming, and art history are brought together, who are capable of world-level research and top-tier journal publications in these fields. Thus, the project will ensure the implementation of the strategy of St. Petersburg University on development of international scientific cooperation and on facilitation of the return of Russian scientists to Russia and on bringing leading foreign scientists to Russia.

Expected results
The key scientific result of the project will be the publication of a series of articles in leading international journals indexed in the Web of Science or Scopus databases, primarily in the oldest specialized journals with a high 5-year impact factor, such as Journal of Cultural Economics (since 1974, 2.649), Creativity and Innovation Management (since 1992, 3.644) and Journal of Business Research (since 1973, 7.550), as well as presentations by members of the project team at high-level international conferences with reports on the subject of the project and expanding the network of foreign scientific contacts. From a practical point of view, the significance of the project for the Russian economy lies, in particular, in the fact that new methods will make it possible to achieve a deeper understanding of the nature and patterns of functioning of international and domestic art markets. Since traditionally investments in art works are considered as shelter investments, the project has been informing Russia's policy by building capacity in the analysis, management and prevention of extreme market behaviour, ensuring smooth economic development, crucial for the long term prosperity of the Russian economy. The methodology that will be developed in the project will have direct implications for statistical inference by providing robust and reliable alternatives to the existing methods. One of the main planned outcomes of the project is to provide a toolbox of statistical methodologies used in many areas of knowledge. The proposed methods make it possible to study the subjects not only as separate elements of the system, but taking into account their interconnection and interaction. All methods will be tested on real world statistical data, which will make it possible to build forecasts and help make real management decisions. Thus, in the long term, the project will also affect other areas of knowledge in which researchers work with network models and operations research. This will lead to a deepening of the existing system of knowledge in other subject areas of science. The lack of research on the impact of various attributes on the pricing and profitability of art works is due to the lack of public datasets on the price, textual and visual characteristics of art works. As part of this project, the required sets will be collected and published, and on the basis of information from world-famous auctioneers Sotheby's and Christie's, etc. An attractive aspect of the research proposed for development is the possibility of their inclusion, among other things, in university courses already taught, as well as the creation of fundamentally new interdisciplinary courses on their basis, and in postgraduate programs implemented at the main places of work of project participants. The research network of mid-career researchers that has emerge as a result of this research project will continue expanding and will provide spill-over effects outside the outlined proposal with long term academic benefits. Overall, the project will continue strengthening research and research training in a world-class environment and continue enhancing international collaboration in research.

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